The United States' Democratic Party is currently facing uncertainty about the steps it should take before its national convention on August 19, 2024. The party must present its candidate by August 7, following President Joe Biden's weak performance in the first debate against Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump on June 27.
This unpredictability raises several important questions that party leaders need to address. Some of the key questions include: Should Biden be replaced with another candidate? Does Biden's withdrawal guarantee a victory for Trump? What are the chances and qualifications of potential replacements for Biden to secure a win in the White House? And can figures like Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris, Hillary Clinton, or Michelle Obama run without Biden withdrawing from the race?
To answer these questions, we can examine the following points:
Pressure to Step Down
A mere ten minutes after the Biden-Trump debate concluded, social media erupted with demands to replace Biden with a new candidate. Critics argue that the president struggled to effectively communicate the party’s objectives, particularly on critical issues such as abortion rights, social welfare programs, women's rights, and support for Black and minority communities. The mounting pressure on Biden to step down has manifested in several ways, including:
1- Opinion polls:
Recent opinion polls conducted immediately after the debate reveal a growing number of people advocating for President Biden to step down. A Morning Consult poll indicated that 60% of voters now prefer Biden to be replaced by a younger candidate. Similarly, the political prediction site PredictIt reported a significant decline in Biden's chances of retaining his presidency following the June 27 debate.
Within the Democratic Party, the sentiment is also shifting. A CBS poll conducted post-debate showed a notable increase in the number of Democrats who believe Biden should not seek re-election. The percentage of Democrats opposed to his candidacy rose from 36% in February to 46% following the debate.
2- Concerns among major donors:
Major donors urgently requested a Zoom meeting with Biden's campaign leaders to voice their concerns about his ability to withstand Trump's electoral assaults in the crucial four months leading up to the November 5 election. The donors' inquiries highlighted their doubts about Biden's capacity to govern until January 20, 2029. They suggested that it might be wiser to select a presidential candidate now rather than risk potentially handing the presidency to Kamala Harris if Biden cannot complete his second term.
While these major donors lack direct influence over state delegates who will officially announce the party's candidate from August 19-22, they wield substantial sway over Democratic leaders in Congress. This includes committee chairs in both the House and Senate, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.
In response to these concerns, Biden's campaign sought to reassure the donors. Campaign leaders, including co-chair Jen O'Malley Dillon, pollster Molly Murphy, and finance chair Rufus Gifford, presented arguments and data demonstrating Biden's potential to rebound and outpace Trump in the coming weeks. Their strongest argument compared Biden's situation to the first debate between former President Barack Obama and Republican candidate Mitt Romney. Despite a close performance in the initial debate, Obama ultimately excelled in subsequent debates and defeated Romney.
3- Calls for Biden to step down:
The most compelling pressures for President Biden to step down come from influential political and media figures, including:
a. Senator Chuck Schumer: The Senate Majority Leader, who has served alongside Biden for two decades, has indicated to political allies that he is open to considering alternatives if Biden's debate performance is disastrous. Schumer has been a strong advocate for an early debate before the official nominations, to give the party a chance to potentially choose an alternative candidate.
b. Editorial Boards of major newspapers: Prestigious newspapers such as The New York Times, Chicago Tribune, and The Atlanta Journal-Constitution have published editorials calling for Biden to step down.
c. Journalist Thomas Friedman: A close friend of Biden, Friedman expressed deep concern over Biden's debate performance, stating that it made him weep. He has explicitly called for Biden to withdraw from the race for the public good.
d. Veteran journalist Chris Wallace: The CNN host has asserted that Biden cannot recover from his debate performance, especially given reports of severe cognitive decline over the past six months.
Challenges of Stepping Down
One of the most significant challenges in replacing Biden with another Democratic candidate is his steadfast refusal to consider this option, even while acknowledging his declining mental and physical faculties. He maintains that he is still capable of "telling the truth" and defeating Trump. This stance presents several obstacles and challenges for those advocating for an alternative candidate:
1- Lack of agreement on a single candidate:
The Democratic Party is far from a monolithic entity. While the progressive left wing, effectively spearheaded by former President Barack Obama, holds significant influence, there remains no consensus on a single candidate among the party's diverse factions, particularly the centrists. Should President Biden step down, the party would face an intense struggle to find a unifying figure.
Vice President Kamala Harris is not universally accepted as Biden's successor, given her low approval rating of just 18%. Similarly, there is no solid agreement on potential candidates like Hillary Clinton, Michelle Obama, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, or Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who nearly secured the Democratic nomination in 2020 after strong showings in New Hampshire and Iowa primaries.
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro has gained recent traction; his support is essential for winning the swing state of Pennsylvania. However, his rise has not garnered unanimous support. Similarly, Colorado Governor Jared Polis, despite his centrist position, is less favored due to his distance from the liberal bloc.
California Governor Gavin Newsom is often mentioned in the media as a potential Biden replacement, yet many within the party doubt his ability to defeat Trump, citing California's unprecedented crime rates as a significant liability. Republicans would likely argue that if Newsom cannot manage crime in California, he would struggle to lead the nation.
Senator Raphael Warnock, representing the swing state of Georgia and a prominent rising African-American figure within the party, also lacks unanimous backing. The same holds true for Congresswoman Amy Klobuchar and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear.
2- Difficulty in changing loyalty:
According to the Democratic Party's internal rules, state delegates are bound to their initial loyalty if President Biden chooses to continue his electoral campaign. Projections indicate that Biden would secure nearly 100% of the state delegates' votes in August, following his victories in all party primaries. Furthermore, the Democratic Party's bylaws grant more power to voters than to party officials within the Democratic National Committee. This was notably demonstrated in 1968 when the party aimed to nominate Vice President Hubert Humphrey against the will of the voters, leading to protests and ultimately resulting in the Democrats and Humphrey losing the presidential election. Consequently, it is highly challenging for the 3,900 delegates representing the fifty states to shift their loyalty unless Biden himself requests it. The 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, which permits the Vice President to assume the presidency if the President is incapacitated, does not apply to the party's internal dynamics. This adds another layer of complexity to the Democrats’ internal considerations.
3- Superdelegates:
This group consists of 700 senior Democratic leaders and elected officials who automatically become delegates due to their positions. They are prohibited from voting to endorse a candidate in the first round if multiple candidates are nominated on August 7. Their voting and influence are reserved for subsequent rounds, which can undermine the party’s leadership spirit and hinder the consolidation of support behind a candidate who is considered capable of defeating Trump on November 5.
4- The Guaranteed interest group:
These individuals staunchly oppose the idea of President Biden stepping down or being replaced by another candidate. Leading this group are members of Biden's campaign, who have faced criticism for the shortcomings in the first debate. In numerous statements, Biden's campaign has firmly rejected calls for his resignation, employing strategies that include highlighting the dangers of party fragmentation and the risk of ensuring a Trump victory. They also emphasize the importance of respecting voter preferences, asserting that Biden will be the Democratic nominee because he was overwhelmingly chosen by the electorate. They argue that if Biden withdraws, it will lead to chaos and result in Democratic candidates less likely to win, as he is the only one who has previously defeated Trump.
Furthermore, U.S. newspapers report that many supporters of Biden’s continued candidacy recognize that their interests are closely tied to his re-election bid. Among these supporters is Vice President Kamala Harris, who views Biden’s re-election as crucial for enhancing her own political image and setting the stage for a potential run as the Democratic nominee in the 2028 election. However, given Harris’s low popularity, Biden’s withdrawal now could pave the way for a new presidential candidate who might not select Harris as their running mate.
Potential Scenarios
Some Democrats described Biden's performance in the first debate as "disastrous" and called for him to step aside and not run in the 2024 elections. Three main scenarios can be outlined:
Scenario 1- Biden stays:
This scenario hinges on several key elements:
Continued Support from Close Circle: This includes unwavering backing from Biden's inner circle, such as his wife Jill Biden, his sister Valerie Biden, and his long-time friend and advisor Ted Kaufman.
Endorsement from Senior Party Leaders: Key figures within the party, including Barack and Michelle Obama, as well as state governors like California Governor Gavin Newsom, rally behind Biden. These leaders fear that the party could descend into chaos and fail to unite behind a single candidate in a short time span.
Surge in Donation Flows: An increase in donations, particularly from small donors, would signal that Biden's base remains solid despite any debate-related controversies. Biden's campaign has already taken steps in this direction, announcing a fundraising haul of approximately $60 million in just two days following the debate.
The "Leader Who Rises" Narrative: Biden's supporters and various party factions promote the idea that the challenges faced on June 27 could happen to any candidate, emphasizing Biden's resilience. They highlight his ability to overcome personal tragedies, such as the death of his first wife Neilia and daughter Naomi in 1972, and his son Beau Biden's death from cancer in 2015.
Scenario 2- Ditching Biden:
In this scenario, a substantial number of Democratic leaders, including Biden's allies in Congress and state governors, might openly withdraw their support. This collective abandonment could pressure Biden into announcing his withdrawal from the race.
Scenario 3- Biden's health deteriorating:
This scenario is contingent upon reports suggesting a significant cognitive decline in President Biden. Should his condition deteriorate further, he might choose to step down voluntarily without external prompting.
In conclusion, President Joe Biden's poor performance in the first debate against Republican candidate Donald Trump on June 27, 2024, has sparked widespread discussions about the possibility of selecting a new presidential candidate. However, replacing Biden is a precarious move that necessitates not only persuading Biden to step aside but also selecting a candidate with a strong chance of securing the White House. Any decision to replace Biden will also hinge on the Democrats' ability to maintain party unity and avoid internal conflict and chaos.
